期刊论文

A method for analyzing probability of overspeed of an accident vehicle

中文

中国安全科学学报

1003-3033

2017

27

7

71-76

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.013

51176014:国家自然科学基金 51208065:国家自然科学基金 2016JJ2003:湖南省自然科学基金 2016ZDSYSKFKT08:国家重点实验室开放基金

本校为第一机构

为分析区间痕迹下事故车辆超速的概率,基于子区间技术建立一种求解方法。首先将输入痕迹区间分成若干子区间,将不同痕迹的子区间组合成若干子空间域;然后将事故再现模型在子空间域上做一阶泰勒展开,并结合区间四则运算法则计算事故再现模型在每一子空间域上的上下界,得到事故再现车速子区间;最后对所得子区间进行分析,取下界大于路段限速值的子区间数除以该数与上界小于路段限速值的子区间数的和的值作为事故车辆超速的概率值。2个数值算例表明:所建方法与蒙特卡罗方法所得概率一致,且所建方法无需对输入痕迹的分布进行假设;一例真实的碰撞事故案例表明:用该方法可解决实际问题,案例中事故车辆超...

In order to analyze the probability that the speed was greater than the speed limit value at an accident section, a method was worked out based on the sub-interval technique. In this new method, every input parameter was divided to many sub-intervals, and then all sub-intervals of different parameters were combined to form many sub-domains.Then, the accident reconstruction model would be Taylor expanded in each sub-domain and the upper and lower bounds of the reconstruction model could be calculated, and the sub-accident reconstruction velocity interval can be obtained.Finally, the number of s...