期刊论文

Modeling Intersection Traffic Crashes Using a Zero-truncated Negative Binomial Model

Huang, Z.-X.

中文

中国公路学报

1001-7372

2020

33

4

146-154

10.19721/j.cnki.1001-7372.2020.04.015

国家自然科学基金项目(51978082) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(300102500101)

本校为第一且通讯机构

事故预测模型是广泛采用的交通安全定量分析方法,但往往要求具有完备的道路、交通和事故数据。然而,基础数据相对不健全是包括中国在内的发展中国家交通安全管理面临的主要问题之一,例如仅有发生事故路段或者交叉口的相关属性特征(即零截尾数据)。为此,为确保基础数据不全的情况下交叉口事故预测的准确性,提出了基于零截尾的广义负二项回归模型;采集了246个非信号控制交叉口的交通与事故数据,采用传统负二项模型和新提出的零截尾负二项模型对全数据和零截尾数据分别进行对比分析。结果表明:在针对截尾数据的分析中,零截尾负二项模型明显优于传统负二项模型,并且零截尾负二项模型的参数估计值与基...

Safety performance functions (SPFs) are a widely used quantitative method in roadway safety management. Conventional SPFs require complete roadway inventory, traffic and crash information. However, lack of data is a challenge in most developing countries, including China. For example, the data only include roadway or intersection inventories where crashes have occurred (this type of dataset is called zero-truncated data). To investigate how to develop reliable intersection SPFs when some data are missing (i.e., zero-truncated data), this paper ...