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Forecasting Stock Market Volatility: A Combination Approach

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成果类型:
期刊论文
作者:
Dai, Zhifeng*;Zhou, Huiting;Dong, Xiaodi;Kang, Jie
通讯作者:
Dai, Zhifeng
作者机构:
[Zhou, Huiting; Dai, Zhifeng; Dong, Xiaodi; Kang, Jie] Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Math & Stat, Changsha 410114, Hunan, Peoples R China.
通讯机构:
[Dai, Zhifeng] C
Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Math & Stat, Changsha 410114, Hunan, Peoples R China.
语种:
英文
期刊:
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
ISSN:
1026-0226
年:
2020
卷:
2020
页码:
1-9
基金类别:
We find that combining two important predictors, stock market implied volatility and oil volatility, can improve the predictability of stock return volatility. We also document that the stock market implied volatility provides far more significant predictability than the oil volatility and other nonoil macroeconomic and financial variables. The empirical results show the “kitchen sink” combination approach that using two predictors jointly performs better than not only the univariate regression models which use oil volatility or stock market implied volatility separately but also convex combination of the individual forecasts. This improvement of predictability is also remarkable when we consider the business cycle. Furthermore, the robust test based on different lag lengths and different macroinformation shows that our forecasting strategy is efficient. National Natural Science Foundation of China 71771030 11301041 Education Department of Hunan Province 19A007
机构署名:
本校为第一且通讯机构
院系归属:
数学与统计学院
摘要:
We find that combining two important predictors, stock market implied volatility and oil volatility, can improve the predictability of stock return volatility. We also document that the stock market implied volatility provides far more significant predictability than the oil volatility and other nonoil macroeconomic and financial variables. The empirical results show the "kitchen sink" combination approach that using two predictors jointly performs better than not only the univariate regression models which use oil volatility or stock market im...

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