期刊论文

中文

实用预防医学

1006-3110

2019

26

2

244-247

10.3969/j.issn.1006-3110.2019.02.037

国家科技重大专项(No.2017ZX10201101002009) 湖南省自然科学基金(No.2018JJ2416).

本校为第一机构

目的建立一种新的HIV传播动力学模型,探讨HIV/AIDS在某一特定区域的传播规律。方法将HIV感染人群分为已确诊人群和未确诊人群两类人群,未确诊HIV感染者是艾滋病病毒传播的主要传播源。根据"幸存者偏差"理论并结合HIV传播效率与基本再生数,建立HIV传播的动力学模型。对建立的动力学模型进行稳定性评价。结果证明建立的HIV/AIDS传播SI动力学模型有较好的稳定性,模型预测提示加大干预力度可以降低HIV传播风险。结论新建立的模型有一定的实用性,但仍然需要完善。

Objective To establish a new dynamics model of HIV/AIDS spread, and to explore HIV/AIDS transmission law in a specific region. Methods The HIV-infected individuals were divided into the confirmed group and the undiagnosed group.The undiagnosed group was the main source of HIV spread. According to the theory of survivorship bias combined with the efficiency of HIV transmission and basic reproduction number, a dynamic model of HIV spread was established and its stability evaluated.Results The results proved that the susceptible-infected dynamics model of HIV/AIDS spread had a better stability, a...